November 29, 2017 R. David Ranson
Join Us For lunch with David Ranson
|Topic||Advancing Risky Asset Prices: The Second Phase|
|Date||Wednesday, November 29, 2017|
|Time||11:30am – 1:00pm|
Austin Women’s Club
708 San Antonio St
Austin, TX 78701
R. David Ranson,
President and Director of Research, HCWE & Company, Cambria, California
Advancing Risky Asset Prices: The Second Phase
Commodities and many other risky asset classes are often volatile, but they have a marked tendency to climb or to drop back together. Domestic equities fall into a separate, “soft,” category of risky assets – favored by a dollar that is strong/stable rather than weak/unstable.
The contrast between a rising and declining hard-risky market could hardly be more dramatic than the experience of the past two or three years. Assets in this category include energy and non-energy commodities, emerging equity markets, high-yield and floating rate bonds, and real-estate investment trusts. All of these assets bottomed simultaneously in February of 2016. Month to month, a simple mix of these would have scarcely missed a beat as they advanced from the bottom to produce a cumulative return of 35 percent.
There are cross currents within this general advance such as the drop in REITS in mid-2016, followed by a drop in emerging markets in late 2016, and the sag in energy prices in early 2017. But these divergences appear to last only a few months, and are followed by catchups.
The second phase of the risky-hard asset advance is likely to be slower and could be more volatile. It will continue to be pockmarked by temporary cross currents such as this year’s drop in the energy sector.
R. David Ranson
President and Director of Research
HCWE & Company
DAVID RANSON is director of research at HCWE & Co., an independent investment research firm now located in Cambria, California. Originally the economic-investment research arm of H.C. Wainwright & Company of Boston, Massachusetts, Wainwright Economics became an independent operation in 1978 and has since been renamed HCWE. Prior to becoming a general partner of H.C. Wainwright, Mr. Ranson joined Director George P. Shultz’s personal staff at the Office of Management and Budget, served as an assistant to then Treasury Secretary William E. Simon, and taught economics at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. He is a Fellow of the Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health and Business Enterprise at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore. Ranson holds M.A. and B.Sc. degrees from Queen’s College, Oxford, and an M.B.A. in finance and a Ph.D. in business economics from the University of Chicago.
Wednesday, November 29th, 2017
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